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How the Pacific shapes our seasons.
Sample content — not an operational product. The ENSO status is not yet published from the GMS forecast system; do not use these figures for any decision.
ENSO-neutral: neither El Niño nor La Niña.
El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a natural cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). They change wind patterns far beyond the Pacific, including over the Caribbean, and each phase usually lasts from several months to a year or more.
| Phase | Rainfall | Hurricane season |
|---|---|---|
| El Niño | Often drier, especially later in the rainy season; greater drought risk | Stronger upper-level winds tend to suppress Atlantic hurricanes |
| La Niña | Often wetter | Tends to favour a more active Atlantic season |
| Neutral | Other factors dominate | Other factors dominate |
These are tendencies, not rules: a quiet El Niño year can still bring a damaging storm.