Forecast accuracy

How well our forecasts verify.

Sample content — not an operational product

Forecast verification is not yet published from the GMS forecast system. The figures on this page are illustrative and must not be used for any weather, marine or safety decision.

Last 12 months

Maximum temperature

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Share of days within 1°C

Rain / no rain

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Share of days correct

Alerts issued in time

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Lead time before impact

How we measure it

Every forecast is compared with what the stations actually recorded: the temperature, whether it rained, and how much. For alerts, we look at whether they were issued early enough to act on and whether the hazard happened.

We publish these results because a forecast service should be accountable, and because the numbers show where we are improving.